The more global the economy has become, the more geopolitical in character it has remained...... Nsikan Nyauko.

Analyses

Global Health on Trial

Global Health on Trial analysis cover image.

Global health is being tested against the commitments that have defined international health policy for decades, including the right to the highest attainable standard of health, universal health coverage, financial protection, equitable access to medical products and collective action against health emergencies. Progress in survival rates, disease control and medical technology has not produced equivalent capacity to deliver essential health services in every setting. Health financing, workforce distribution, infrastructure, regulatory capacity and preparedness have remained unequal between countries. Intellectual property provisions have continued to influence licensing, production and access to medicines and technologies.

Armed conflict, displacement, climate-related risks, sanctions and digital health are consequential in global health discourse. Commercial determinants of health have also acquired greater significance. Health has become increasingly embedded in foreign policy, development cooperation and international negotiations, extending responsibility for population health beyond ministries of health. International health law, multilateral financing, bilateral cooperation and philanthropy have expanded the instruments available, but gaps remain.

Health and the Wealth of Nations

Estimates by the World Health Organization (WHO) and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) covering 26 countries place the average annual loss in economic output from noncommunicable diseases at 4.3 per cent of GDP. In Thailand, the annual cost of cancer, cardiovascular disease, diabetes and chronic respiratory disease was estimated at 9.7 per cent of GDP in 2019. In Cambodia, the estimated loss was equivalent to 6.6 per cent of GDP in 2018, compared with 6.5 per cent in Armenia a year earlier. The estimate for Georgia exceeded 6 per cent. Uzbekistan’s estimate was 4.7 per cent in 2016, and the corresponding estimates for the Russian Federation and Kyrgyzstan were both close to 4 per cent. Among these countries, interventions addressing major noncommunicable diseases were estimated to generate health savings and economic gains averaging about 5 per cent of national GDP over fifteen years, with country estimates ranging from 0.4 per cent to 18.7 per cent. In 2024, Singapore had GDP per capita of about US$90,674 and life expectancy of 83 years, compared with about US$1,084 and 55 years in Nigeria. The corresponding figures were about US$84,534 and 79 years in the United States, US$56,104 and 81 years in Germany, US$32,487 and 84 years in Japan, US$13,303 and 78 years in China, and US$2,695 and 72 years in India.

Health, National Income and Public Health Expenditure
Health national income and public health expenditure.

Sources: WHO and United Nations Development Programme investment case estimates on noncommunicable diseases; World Bank, World Development Indicators, GDP per capita and life expectancy, 2024; WHO Global Health Expenditure Database, domestic government health expenditure as a percentage of GDP.

Government expenditure on health also differs relative to the size of national economies. WHO's Global Health Expenditure Database reports domestic government health expenditure of about 7.9 per cent of GDP across high-income economies in 2023, compared with 3.4 per cent in upper-middle-income economies, 1.3 per cent in lower-middle-income economies and 1.0 per cent in low-income economies. In 2023, domestic government health expenditure was about 9.3 per cent of GDP in Germany, 9.1 per cent in Japan, about 9.0 per cent each in the United States and United Kingdom, 4.9 per cent in South Korea, 5.5 per cent in South Africa, 3.4 per cent in China, 2.6 per cent in Singapore, 1.3 per cent in India and 0.6 per cent in Nigeria.

Health for all remains an undertaking of implementation. International norms, financing mechanisms and advances in medicine have expanded the means available to protect health, but their value depends on whether essential services, medicines and technologies reach populations without financial hardship or exclusion. The continuing distance between agreed commitments and access is a measure of how far the world has advanced towards the right to the highest attainable standard of health.

Disclaimer

The scope of this analysis may differ according to its intended use. Unless otherwise agreed in relation to a specific mandate, it was not prepared by reference to the circumstances or requirements of any particular audience. Nothing in it constitutes investment advice or a determination of its suitability or appropriateness for a particular recipient. The material reflects the evidence and conditions relevant to the period examined and may be affected by subsequent developments. Users are responsible for determining the relevance of its content to their circumstances and for obtaining appropriate advice where a decision requires specialist judgement.

About the Chief Analyst

Nsikan Nyauko, Chief Analyst and Chair, Country & Sector Portfolio.

Nsikan Nyauko is an economist and Chartered Management Consultant with decades of cross-industry experience and a range of postgraduate qualifications spanning Economics, Big Data and Analytics, International Affairs and Diplomacy, International Commercial Law, Digital Transformation, Project Management, Business and Management, and Public Health. He serves the Centre as Faculty, Executive Development and Lead Advisor, Group Regional Programme for EMEA, APAC and the Americas. He has built relationships across industry, government, international organisations, academia, think tanks and civil society and has developed policy and strategy papers to support decision-making by corporations and sovereign entities.

Associate Analysts Nadine Karam; Marek Zieliński; Yun-seo Han; Camila Arriagada; Elias Nordström; Graham Bellamy

Independent Perspectives