The World Behind the Headlines
World affairs examined through statecraft, the behaviour of markets and the decisions of enterprises.
October 2026
The World Trade Organization's latest projections have exposed a striking disjunction in the trajectory of international trade. Merchandise trade volume is expected to expand by 3.9 per cent in 2026, more than double the 1.9 per cent anticipated in March. Yet projected growth in trade in services has been revised.......
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October 2026
China's industrial upgrading has narrowed the separation between its export specialisation and the technology-intensive manufacturing traditionally associated with advanced economies. Machinery, chemicals and automobiles have been prominent in this realignment, exposing the export sectors of Germany, Japan and other producers to competition within overlapping product markets. The implications extend to.......
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October 2026
The concentration of international shipping routes and submarine telecommunications infrastructure within strategically sensitive maritime corridors has introduced significant risks to global economic security. Commercial navigation is constrained by maritime chokepoints, while submarine cable networks depend on seabed conditions, landing facilities and maintenance capabilities. Their susceptibility to interdiction, infrastructure damage and.......
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October 2026
The succession to António Guterres has brought the provisions governing the United Nations' highest administrative office into renewed contention. Beyond the selection of a Secretary-General, the debate concerns institutional authority, legitimacy and the capacity of the multilateral system to discharge its Charter responsibilities amid geopolitical fragmentation and competing national interests.......
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October 2026
Washington’s retreat from official development assistance has sharpened Africa’s negotiations over market access, strategic minerals and development financing. This transactional diplomacy involves competing demands for fiscal commitments, regulatory concessions and commercial opportunities. Asymmetries in negotiating positions can determine whether external aid enlarges domestic policy space or constrains it. The South.......
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