The state is both a guardian of national advantage and an architect of the conditions under which markets operate. Firms, in turn, influence policy, market behaviour and the economic environment in which governments and enterprises make decisions. The Centre for Geopolitics & Economic Intelligence equips sovereign institutions and firms with intelligence, evidence, and decision frameworks to interpret geopolitical and economic developments, anticipate shifts in the balance of power and make decisions informed by an understanding of political and market realities.
The World Behind the Headlines
World affairs examined through statecraft, the behaviour of markets and the decisions of enterprises.
October 2026
Global Trade is Surviving the Shocks Unevenly
The World Trade Organization's latest projections have exposed a striking disjunction in the trajectory of international trade. Merchandise trade volume is expected to expand by 3.9 per cent in 2026, more than double the 1.9 per cent anticipated in March. Yet projected growth in trade in services has been revised.......
October 2026
China Has Taken Trade Rivalry Up the Value Chain
China's industrial upgrading has narrowed the separation between its export specialisation and the technology-intensive manufacturing traditionally associated with advanced economies. Machinery, chemicals and automobiles have been prominent in this realignment, exposing the export sectors of Germany, Japan and other producers to competition within overlapping product markets. The implications extend to.......
October 2026
Global Economy Has a Growing Undersea Vulnerability
The concentration of international shipping routes and submarine telecommunications infrastructure within strategically sensitive maritime corridors has introduced significant risks to global economic security. Commercial navigation is constrained by maritime chokepoints, while submarine cable networks depend on seabed conditions, landing facilities and maintenance capabilities. Their susceptibility to interdiction, infrastructure damage and.......
October 2026
Choosing the Next UN Chief is Also a Test of the Institution
The succession to António Guterres has brought the provisions governing the United Nations' highest administrative office into renewed contention. Beyond the selection of a Secretary-General, the debate concerns institutional authority, legitimacy and the capacity of the multilateral system to discharge its Charter responsibilities amid geopolitical fragmentation and competing national interests.......
October 2026
Africa’s New Economic Deals and the Politics of Reciprocity
Washington’s retreat from official development assistance has sharpened Africa’s negotiations over market access, strategic minerals and development financing. This transactional diplomacy involves competing demands for fiscal commitments, regulatory concessions and commercial opportunities. Asymmetries in negotiating positions can determine whether external aid enlarges domestic policy space or constrains it. The South.......